How much CO2 may mankind still emit in order to at least halfway prevent uncontrollable climate change? This question is crucial for planning climate protection measures. How fast does it have to go? By when must CO2 emissions be reduced and by how much? These are questions that experts ask themselves every day. The budget plays a major role here. To what extent can I manage my resources and what is available to me? The IPCC 2018 calculated the CO2 budget of mankind in its special report on the 1.5 degree target. The amount remaining from that point on is not very large. In order to land at 1.5 degrees with a two-thirds probability, only 420 billion tonnes of CO2 may be emitted; with two degrees of warming, the figure is 1170 billion tonnes.

At present, annual emissions are 42 billion tonnes. However, this calculation ignores one major point: the greenhouse gases in permafrost soils and moors, which are thawing. Not only the emissions directly caused by humans themselves must be taken into account in calculating the remaining CO2 budget, but also the feedback effects in the Earth system. They also reduce the amount that can still be emitted. Did you know this?

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